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Trading Expectancy Calculator

Combine win rate, realised average payoffs and costs to model the average result per trade.

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Read results in risk units

One R is the initial planned risk of a trade. Enter gross average winners and the positive magnitude of average losers in R. Net expectancy equals win probability times average win, minus loss probability times average loss, minus average costs.

Break-even after costs

The break-even win rate is (average loss + average costs) divided by (average win + average loss). A result above 100% is not achievable within this model. Use zero additional costs if the entered averages are already net.

An average does not describe the next trade

This two-outcome model assumes every trade is a win or a loss. It does not model scratch trades, changing distributions, loss sequences or pass probability. A positive historical average cannot guarantee future results.

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Frequently asked questions

Does this tool provide financial advice?

No. It provides information and mathematical calculations only. It is not financial, investment or trading advice.

Are results guaranteed?

No. Results depend on the inputs and the assumptions shown for each tool. Entered cost estimates cannot guarantee actual fees or slippage, and gaps and changing market conditions can alter outcomes.

Do blockfunded rules always stay the same?

Use the official rules and terms applicable to the specific account. Presets are loaded from current configuration when available, while historical accounts may use an earlier captured ruleset.

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For information and calculation purposes only. Not financial or investment advice. Results are not guaranteed. Challenge-specific rules are governed by the current official Rules and Terms.