Distinguish percentage risk from a fixed cash loss.
If you risk 1% of the current balance on each trade, the amount at risk changes after every closed loss. Starting at 100,000 USD, the first modeled loss is 1,000 USD. The next balance is 99,000 USD, so the second loss is 990 USD. This is fixed fractional sizing: the percentage stays constant while the cash amount shrinks.
Losing 1,000 USD every time is a different model. That fixed cash amount becomes a larger percentage as the balance falls. The losing-streak calculator uses the fractional model only. It assumes each trade loses exactly the chosen fraction and the position is resized before the next trade; fees, execution gaps and overlapping positions are excluded.
Work through ten consecutive losses.
The ending balance is starting balance multiplied by (1 - risk fraction) raised to the number of losses. For ten losses at 1% each, 100,000 × 0.99^10 gives 90,438.21 USD when rounded at the end. The modeled loss is 9,561.79 USD, or 9.56% of the starting balance. These are original arithmetic examples, not observed account results.
At 0.5% per trade, the same ten-loss scenario leaves 95,111.01 USD, a 4.89% drawdown. At 2%, it leaves 81,707.28 USD, an 18.29% drawdown. The comparison shows sensitivity to size; it does not identify a universally appropriate percentage. A challenge's permitted loss can be much smaller than the full account balance.
Entering ten losses asks what that sequence would do to the balance. It does not claim that ten losses are likely, unlikely or the worst possible outcome.
Recovery uses a different denominator.
The gain required to return to the starting balance equals (starting balance ÷ remaining balance - 1) × 100. After the ten 1% losses above, the required gain is about 10.57%. A 20% loss requires a 25% gain; a 50% loss requires a 100% gain. Loss and recovery percentages differ because the recovery starts from a smaller base.
When the remaining balance is zero, no finite percentage return on that balance restores the starting amount. The tool displays a limit message instead of infinity or a misleading zero. A required recovery percentage is descriptive arithmetic. It should not be treated as a target that justifies increasing leverage or abandoning the process.
Place the sequence inside the actual account rules.
Ten losses spread across several days are not equivalent to ten losses within one daily window. Compare the loss path with both the daily threshold and the maximum threshold defined for the account. Open positions, start-of-day reference values and resets can change the remaining room. The streak calculator deliberately does not mark a scenario as challenge-compliant.
Use the current drawdown calculator for account limits and the trade risk checker for the next planned order. If using journal statistics to estimate streak likelihood, independence and a stable win rate are additional assumptions; the simple balance formula does not establish either. Review the cause of repeated losses before treating them as ordinary variation.
- Match the sizing method.Use a fraction of remaining balance only if that matches the actual plan.
- Check both boundaries.Compare daily and maximum drawdown separately, including open exposure.
- Review before resuming.Inspect execution, setup quality and changes in market conditions.
Try the scenario against your loss budget
FAQ
Do ten losses at 1% equal a 10% drawdown?
Not with fractional resizing. The modeled drawdown is about 9.56%; a fixed loss of 1% of the original balance would total 10%.
Does a 10% gain recover a 10% loss?
No. A 10% loss requires about an 11.11% gain on the remaining balance.
Does this estimate the chance of a losing streak?
No. It calculates the balance effect of the sequence you enter.
Does the tool include fees or account rules?
No. It isolates fractional loss arithmetic. Use the other risk tools and the account's official rules for those checks.